Week of April 08

Trade Set Up

Please refer to the charts at the end of the post to see which resistance points I’m talking about.
Current Position: 50% of full position in NUGT.
Looking to add more to the position after it sells off at the first resistance, which is also where the first take profit point is. I will be selling half of my current position at this point.
Once it sells off at the first resistance, I believe it’ll retest and breakthrough to the second resistance. This is where I’ll sell half or all depending on news and price action. I’ll post more updates throughout the week.

We have a big week ahead of us with potential updates on several important political event, along with some important economic data being released throughout the week. The news that we should keep our eyes on are updates on the trade deal, and voting outcomes of the Brexit extension set to be voted on Wednesday. US and China are in what seems like the final stretch of signing a trade deal that could help boost the world economy, however we can’t discount the multiple occasions where US trade reps admitted that there are still issues which need to be resolved before a deal can be made. As long as investors are still in the dark, markets will likely trade in a range as the speculation continues.

Wednesday is looking like a big day in terms of catalysts that could drive the market in one direction, at least in the very short term. We have the decision on the Brexit extension, as well as CPI numbers coming out in the US. These indicators and events could help Gold break out of its recently tight range and make a strong push in one direction. As previously mentioned in my daily posts, Gold has been consolidating at the bottom end of its descending triangle, meaning it’s found support and more likely to breakout to the upside than downside. As of writing this, Gold is up 0.4% overnight so far and I believe it’ll push up to at least the downward trendline.

The US dollar is still relatively flat, and looks to be consolidating as well near the top end of the ascending triangle. My current view is still that it’ll likely trend down after some more sideways trading, however my thesis depends on the price action this week so stay tuned for my daily updates.

Yields are starting to slip as investors wait for more catalysts, with CPI numbers and the Fed minutes being the most important ones this week.

Gold miners will likely continue its short-term trend upwards given the bullish sign from Gold. While I am bullish on miners in the short term, I will be actively taking profits as it hits the previous resistances marked on the chart. My medium term view is still unclear and depends on further macro development and more concrete directional news flow. I will also be watching the price action throughout the week to gauge sentiment that might be helpful in my predictions.

Have a great trading week everyone!

Gold Miners ETF, Symbol $GDX
US Dollar Index

10 yr yield

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