Flat Friday

Trade Update:

Currently still only have 50% of a full position in $NUGT. The price retraced today as predicted, however my limit order was placed too low at $19.2 and the lowest trade was $19.33, by the time I was back at the computer it was bought up above $19.6. I decided that the risk/reward of a trade at any entry price above $19.35 is not optimal, given the following reasons:

  1. Holding over the weekend right now has the added risk of potential trade news coming out over the weekend. Given the recent news flow hinting at the better than expected progress so far.
  2. Extremely low volume today, suggesting that it was consolidating today and a bigger move either up or down is coming next week.
  3. Never FOMO, always get the best entry points to ensure the best outcome possible if you’re predictions are wrong.  

Not a super exciting day in the world of Gold Miner trading, with the daily volume closing at half of what it usually is. As predicted, GDX started the day in the red as it completed a retracement downwards due to the large upward momentum yesterday. It then proceeded to get bought up to the opening price and remained in a tight range around there for the rest of the day. Gold itself traded very similarly over today’s session and ended flat as well.

The yellow metal has been pushed back and forth due to conflicting news and lack of strong directional news flow. On one hand Gold is being supported by the lingering fear of economic slowdown, and the historical Brexit chaos currently unfolding in Europe. In my opinion, Gold will continue to be supported in the very near short term as long as Brexit and the US-China deal are still uncertain. With that being said, Gold is currently under selling pressure due to the continuous stream of positive economic data coming out of the US. The positive data indicates a tight labor market with good wage growth, and inflation has stayed below expectations so far. Gold will likely stay within a tight range until further macro news can give it a concrete direction.

Yields slid slightly today with the 10 yr closing just below 2.5%. I don’t see yields going on a major bull run unless trade deal comes out positive, in the mean time it’ll most likely trade around 2.4%-2.5%.

The US Dollar Index tried once again to test the $12275 resistance area but fell short just before getting there, with the highest point being around $12267. I’m still in agreement with my previous analysis that the US dollar will try to test 12275 again, and if it fails to break through it’ll sell off to sub $12100. A more detailed and updated post will be made before next week starts, including my planned trades for next week. Thanks for reading!

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